Submarine Volcano Off Oregon Expected to Blow This Year
An underwater volcano off the coast of Oregon, known as Axial Seamount, is nearing its next eruption. Scientists predict that this active undersea volcano will erupt sometime between now and the end of 2025. Located 300 miles west of Cannon Beach, Axial is one of the most closely studied submarine volcanoes in the world, providing a wealth of data for researchers.
Axial Seamount last erupted in 2015 and is home to the world’s first underwater volcano observatory, the New Millennium Observatory. This observatory offers an unparalleled window into the volcano's behavior, revealing that its magma chamber is approaching a critical threshold for eruption.
“Axial serves as a natural laboratory,” explained the researchers. “Over 25 years of observation have shown us consistent patterns. Recent increases in seismic activity and surface inflation indicate significant magma movement beneath the seafloor.”
Underwater volcano near Oregon, Axial Seamount, showing signs of eruption by 2025 |
Volcanic History and Patterns
Axial Seamount is part of the Juan de Fuca Ridge, a tectonic plate boundary beneath the northeast Pacific Ocean. Sitting atop a magma-rich hotspot, the volcano undergoes cycles of inflation and deflation as magma accumulates in its chamber and eruptions release the pressure. Since scientists began monitoring Axial in 1997, they have documented eruptions in 1998, 2011, and 2015.
Between 2015 and 2023, Axial experienced a lull, with uplift rates dropping to nearly zero. However, this calm ended abruptly in late 2023, when researchers observed a surge in activity. The seafloor began inflating at a rate of 25 centimeters per year, and seismic activity spiked, with hundreds of small earthquakes occurring daily.
“We’ve observed Axial for decades and developed predictive models based on its patterns,” researchers stated. “Its behavior offers invaluable insights into submarine volcanism.”
A Predictable Powerhouse
Axial Seamount’s regular eruption cycle and accessibility have made it a focal point for volcanic research. Advanced sensors from the Ocean Observatories Initiative’s Regional Cabled Array have been deployed on the seafloor to track its activity. These instruments measure the inflation and seismicity that signal magma movement and buildup.
Since its last eruption in 2015, Axial’s inflation had been gradual—until late 2023, when the rate of uplift surged. This increase, coupled with heightened seismicity, mirrors the conditions observed before its previous eruptions.
“Inflation has accelerated dramatically, and seismic activity has intensified,” scientists explained. “These are clear signs that pressure is building, and an eruption is likely imminent.”
The Science of Eruption Prediction
Researchers use a model developed by volcanologist Christopher Kilburn to forecast eruptions. This model links seismic activity and ground deformation to eruption timing. Axial’s current behavior closely resembles the patterns observed before its 2015 eruption, lending confidence to predictions.
“While earlier trends were inconsistent, the recent acceleration in activity provides a clearer picture,” scientists noted. “We estimate the eruption window to be between now and the end of 2025.”
Why Axial Seamount Matters
Although Axial’s eruptions occur deep beneath the ocean and pose no threat to human populations, they offer a rare opportunity for scientific study. Submarine eruptions are notoriously difficult to observe, but Axial’s proximity to land and extensive monitoring network make it an ideal site for research.
The insights gained from Axial have implications far beyond this single volcano. They contribute to the development of predictive models for volcanic activity worldwide, potentially improving hazard preparedness in populated regions.
“Axial’s predictability allows us to refine our understanding of volcanic processes,” researchers emphasized. “This knowledge could one day save lives by improving eruption forecasts for land-based volcanoes.”
A Glimpse Beneath the Waves
As scientists monitor Axial Seamount’s inflation and seismicity, they prepare to witness its next eruption in near real-time. This event represents not only a dramatic demonstration of Earth’s dynamic forces but also a testament to advancements in science and technology.
“This is a rare chance to observe an underwater eruption as it happens,” said one researcher. “Each observation brings us closer to understanding the powerful processes shaping our planet.”
Despite the dramatic nature of submarine eruptions, Axial Seamount poses no danger to Oregon’s coastal communities. Instead, its activity provides an extraordinary opportunity to study volcanic processes and improve forecasting methods.
“The seafloor is alive with movement,” researchers said. “Axial Seamount reminds us of the hidden forces shaping our world and the potential for science to uncover their secrets.”
In essence, while the impending eruption of Axial Seamount is a safe distance from human impact, its scientific value is immense, offering a window into the fiery heart of our planet, hidden beneath the ocean's depths.
The study is published in the journal Nature.